diff --git a/benchmarks/wiflow-dynamics/STATE.md b/benchmarks/wiflow-dynamics/STATE.md index 1cca2d18a..ecfbe16d1 100644 --- a/benchmarks/wiflow-dynamics/STATE.md +++ b/benchmarks/wiflow-dynamics/STATE.md @@ -216,6 +216,39 @@ after seeing results. Deviations from this section must be recorded as deviation - **EIG target is pose** `y_{t+1}` (the charter's actual question — "which probe most reduces uncertainty about pose"). EIG about unobserved bands is secondary. +### RUNG 3 PRE-REGISTRATION (written 2026-09-08 ~23:05, BEFORE the model was written) + +**The question rung 3 asks, and nothing else:** *does an input-dependent `Σ(z_t, mask)` +let EIG close any of the target-peeking gap?* Rung 2 established that adaptivity with +no information buys nothing, and that the whole gap is "knowing which bands matter at +this timestep". A heteroscedastic head is the minimal thing that could supply that. + +**Architecture (fixed now).** Two heads over the same inputs: +- **variance head:** `(z_t, mask) → log σ²` for the 30 pose dims. It deliberately does + **not** see the revealed values. That makes EIG computable in closed form without + sampling *and* without peeking — the only reason the design is shaped this way. + Crucially `σ` now depends on `z_t`, so the EIG-optimal probe set **varies per + sample**. That is the one thing rung 2 could not do. +- **mean head:** `(z_t, mask ⊙ z_{t+1}, mask) → μ`. +- Diagonal Gaussian predictive; loss = Gaussian NLL; masks drawn at random per sample + per epoch so the model learns `p(· | z_t, S)` for arbitrary `S`. +- Backend: **`burn-ndarray` (CPU), chosen deliberately.** The model is tiny and 60k + samples train in minutes; this removes the Blackwell/sm_120 CUDA build risk. Rung 3 + is a capability question, not a throughput one. + +**Pass condition — ALL THREE, or rung 3 is reported as "did not help":** +1. beats the rung-2 joint Gaussian on held-out pose NLL; **and** +2. coverage within ±3 pp at **all four** levels (the criterion rung 2 marginally + missed at 50%); **and** +3. EIG-greedy beats random on PCK@20 by **more than 2 SE**, paired, at some budget K. + +**Evaluation is reused unchanged** — same 20,000 test pairs, same mean-pose bar, same +coverage protocol, same policies and paired tests. Nothing about the harness moves. + +**Hard time-box.** If rung 3 does not produce a measured result tonight, it is +recorded as "not attempted / incomplete", never as a partial claim. Rung 3 is +optional; the charter is already satisfied by rungs 1–2. + ### Honesty constraints agreed in advance - **A homoscedastic Σ makes "EIG-driven" a FIXED policy.** For a Gaussian,