9 Commits
Author SHA1 Message Date
rUv e5bf0d4892 feat(forecast): add independent Rust multivariate training stack (#1766)
* feat(forecast): add independent Rust training stack

Signed-off-by: Codex <codex@openai.com>

* docs(forecast): record informal HPO exploration note (unaccepted)

Records an exploratory Darwin Mode numeric-genome hyperparameter search
against the tiny_ci synthetic accuracy protocol: WQL improved 0.257 -> 0.161
-> 0.153 over two search rounds, staying ahead of both baselines throughout.
Explicitly scoped as informal/exploratory (not a frozen leakage-free report,
not eligible for the evidence ledger, not validated for large_linux or any
real dataset) per this doc's own evidence-tagging discipline.

* feat(forecast-core): add per-horizon weighted quantile loss

weighted_quantile_loss collapses the whole horizon into one aggregate
number, hiding whether error grows with lead time. Add a sibling
function using the identical per-cell pinball formula and domain
checks, just reduced per horizon step instead of globally. A unit
test reconstructs the aggregate from the per-step numerators/
denominators to prove the two functions agree exactly, not just
approximately.

* feat(forecast-model): add evaluation-only local activation

Adds activate_for_evaluation and build_eval_input, gated behind the
cpu feature. activate_for_evaluation self-signs an unsigned candidate
with a fixed, publicly-known, non-secret Ed25519 key so a CLI operator
can run inference against their own just-trained candidate without a
real release signature -- explicitly never a production trust path,
documented as such in the module doc comment. The schema-digest check
in ArtifactActivationPolicy still applies in full; only signing is
relaxed. build_eval_input constructs a single-window ModelInput for
CPU inference from raw context-major values/mask arrays, matching the
training batch builders exact time-feature/descriptor encoding.

Six unit tests cover: malformed-candidate rejection, digest-mismatch
rejection (proving the schema check has teeth even on this relaxed
path), getting past the policy gate with a matching digest, and
eval-input shape validation.

* feat(forecast-train): add evaluate and prepare-synthetic-dataset CLI

Turns this sessions throwaway HPO scripts into real, tested CLI
surfaces, replacing two example binaries that bypassed the CLI/TOML
training path entirely.

prepare-synthetic-dataset generates a larger, configurable synthetic
training shard (default 24 windows) plus a matching train-local.toml
with the given OptimizerSpec hyperparameters baked in, and a separate
held-out test.jsonl -- the same synthetic-only, local-validation-only
posture as prepare-local-example, just bigger and configurable.

evaluate scores a trained (unsigned) candidate against held-out
windows and the LastValue/SeasonalNaive baselines: overall weighted
quantile loss, a per-horizon breakdown, 80% interval coverage, and
missingness, for the model and both baselines. Explicitly lists what
docs/benchmarks/ruforecast.mds full accuracy protocol additionally
asks for that this does not cover (abstention coverage, selective
risk, site/device slices, interference regime, RuVector-retrieval
ablation) rather than silently omitting them -- each needs
infrastructure a single-entity synthetic fixture does not have.

Together the three real commands (prepare-synthetic-dataset,
train-local, evaluate) reproduce the exact WQL numbers the old
library-bypassing example scripts produced for the same
hyperparameters, confirmed by re-running the harness/ruview HPO
dry-run end to end against the new CLI path.

New integration test trains a real candidate via smoke, evaluates it
against held-out synthetic windows, and asserts the full report shape
and an empty-input rejection.

* feat(forecast-train): add prepare-synthetic-dataset --seed + Autogenous bridge

--seed (default 0, backward compatible) makes prepare-synthetic-dataset's
generator deterministic per offset: same seed -> byte-identical corpus
across runs (needed to train two genomes on the SAME corpus for a fair
comparison); different seeds -> genuinely independent corpora (needed for
honest multi-seed/multi-judge evaluation upstream, both in
harness/ruview/flywheel/ruforecast/gate.mjs's fitness function and in the
new v2/crates/ruforecast-autogenous-bridge crate added here).

ruforecast-autogenous-bridge is a LOCAL-DEV-ONLY (excluded from the v2
workspace, publish = false) bridge from this crate's real evaluate CLI
into ruvnet/autogenous's new regression-candidate promotion path (separate,
unpushed branch feat/regression-candidate-kind): runs N independent
train+evaluate judges on genuinely distinct synthetic corpora, signs
receipts, and gets a real cryptographically-verified PROMOTE/REJECT
decision -- defense in depth on top of, not a replacement for, Darwin's own
promotion gate. Path-depends on a sibling autogenous checkout that does not
exist in CI; build/run directly via `cargo build --manifest-path
crates/ruforecast-autogenous-bridge/Cargo.toml`.

cargo test -p ruview-forecast-train --no-default-features --features
cpu,cli: all green (unaffected existing tests + this backward-compatible
addition).

* docs(forecast): retract round-2 HPO result, record honest multi-seed finding

The earlier "Informal HPO exploration note" claimed a real improvement
(WQL 0.257 -> 0.153) from a 3-round hyperparameter search. That search
evaluated every candidate against one fixed synthetic corpus (seed 0) for
every round -- textbook overfitting. Independent verification against two
fresh corpora (via the new ruforecast-autogenous-bridge crate) showed the
"winner" losing to the baseline on both.

Fixed the root cause in harness/ruview/flywheel/ruforecast/gate.mjs:
candidates are now scored against three independent corpora, worst-case
across them, not one fixed corpus.

Re-ran the search under the fix. It found a new winner that genuinely beat
baseline on all three of its own search seeds -- and that winner ALSO lost
independent verification on fresh seeds. Two independent search rounds,
pre- and post-fix, both produced an illusory "winner." The honest reading:
at this dataset scale (24 synthetic windows) held-out WQL varies enormously
by which corpus is drawn, regardless of hyperparameters -- confirmed
directly by the baseline genome's own primary swinging from 0.83 to a full
regression across the three fixed search seeds with unchanged
hyperparameters. No RuForecast hyperparameter configuration has been shown
to reliably beat the trivial baselines out-of-sample at this scale.

Also fixes a real design inconsistency surfaced by this exploration: the
Autogenous regression-candidate promotion verifier
(envelope::regression::verify_regression_promotion, separate unpushed
ruvnet/autogenous branch feat/regression-candidate-kind) required all
judges to share one corpus_id, which conflicts with this kind's
intentional cross-corpus judge design. Corrected there (commit bfa4c48);
did not change either REJECT verdict, which were already driven by the
real NotBetterThanParent signal on their own.

Append-only: the original round-2 row is kept, read together with this
new amendment section, per this doc's own evidence-ledger discipline.

* refactor(forecast): extract RuForecast to ruvnet/RuForecast submodule

Mirrors the v2/crates/worldgraph pattern: RuForecast becomes its own
independent public repo/workspace (ruforecast-core/model/train), mounted
at v2/crates/ruforecast as a git submodule, with v2/Cargo.toml path-depping
into its sub-crates and excluding the submodule from the v2 workspace.

Full v2 --workspace check passes; the ruforecast CLI builds and runs
correctly from its new location. Real git history for the extracted
crates (7 commits) was preserved via git-filter-repo, not squashed.

* feat(autogenous-bridge): real-data independent verification tool

real_data_verify.rs: signs two real, temporally-independent judge
measurements (different train/test split boundaries on the same real
household vitals corpus, not synthetic seeds) through the real
Autogenous regression-candidate promotion path, and gets a genuine
cryptographically-checked PROMOTE/REJECT verdict.

Result recorded (see docs/benchmarks/ruforecast.md): REJECT. One judge
nominally beat the trivial baseline but by less than the 0.01
non-inferiority margin; the other judge lost outright. Consistent with
every synthetic-data search this session -- no configuration has yet
been shown to reliably beat trivial baselines out-of-sample, now
including a real 6390-sample household corpus.

Bumps the ruforecast submodule to pick up the evaluate real-gap fix.

* docs(forecast): record real-household-data result (REJECT, signed)

6390 real vital-signs samples, two independent temporal splits,
independently verified via the real Autogenous regression-candidate
promotion path. Signed verdict: REJECT -- neither split cleared the
non-inferiority margin. Same conclusion as every synthetic search this
session, now confirmed with real data too: more real data is the
credible next lever, not further search on this scale of fixture.

* chore(forecast): point ruforecast submodule at published main (post gap-tolerance fix)

* ci(forecast): fix ruforecast-ci.yml for the new v2/crates/ruforecast submodule layout

The RuForecast crates were extracted into a standalone submodule (v2/crates/ruforecast, mirroring the existing v2/crates/worldgraph pattern) and are no longer members of the v2 workspace. The CI workflow still referenced the old in-tree package names/paths (ruview-forecast-core/model/train under v2/), which broke every forecast job with "cannot specify features for packages outside of workspace".

Fixed every job to target the submodule: working-directory -> v2/crates/ruforecast, -p ruview-forecast-* -> -p ruforecast-*, all hardcoded Cargo.toml/source paths in the Python assertion and clean-room-scan blocks, the Swatinem/rust-cache workspaces input, the artifact-tree output paths, and the two levels of relative path (../ -> ../../) in the informational-benchmark steps whose working directory moved one level deeper.

Also collapsed the paths: trigger filters internal-crate globs (v2/crates/ruview-forecast-*/**) down to the single v2/crates/ruforecast path, since GitHub Actions path filters only ever see a submodule gitlink change as one entry in the parent tree, never its internal file paths -- the old globs could never have matched anything.

Includes a real cargo fmt fix (submodule commit d9902f9) for formatting drift left over from the earlier real-data gap-tolerance fix, which the contract job's fmt --check step would otherwise have failed on.

All four forecast CI jobs' real commands verified locally before push: cargo test/check for CPU, CUDA/WGPU compile-check, the contract job's Python assertion block, the hosted-boundaries clean-room scan, and cargo fmt --check.

* docs(forecast): record real BIDMC cross-entity holdout result (REJECT)

Two independent real-patient partitions (34/16 and 24/26 splits, 53 total
ICU patients from PhysioNet BIDMC, Open Data Commons Attribution License
v1.0) both show the model losing to trivial baselines by a decisive margin
(+69% and +601% worse WQL). First genuine cross-entity real-data test this
project has run; same conclusion as every prior synthetic and single-household
test. Full Autogenous signed verification was not run for this entry -
flagged explicitly in the note.

* chore(forecast): point ruforecast submodule at published main (example feature-gate fix)

* chore(forecast): point ruforecast submodule at published main (clippy fix)

---------

Signed-off-by: Codex <codex@openai.com>
2026-09-01 23:35:42 -04:00
ruv 50edd0aec6 chore: vendor ruvnet/metaharness as a git submodule
Adds vendor/metaharness (github.com/ruvnet/metaharness, pinned at
87b6c51 on main) -- the real MetaHarness generator: repo-aware CLI,
Rust/WASM+NAPI-RS kernel, host adapters, @metaharness/router
(cost-optimal model routing) and @metaharness/darwin ("Darwin Mode",
self-evolving harness config). ADR-285's harness/homecore/ already
depends on the real @metaharness/kernel@0.1.2 npm package; this
vendors the source repo alongside the other vendor/* submodules
(rufield, rvcsi, ruvector, sublinear-time-solver, midstream) for local
inspection and building.

No wiring into any harness/ or crate yet -- follow-up work.
2026-07-30 18:00:03 -04:00
ruv aeac5f5543 chore(worldgraph): extract geo+worldgraph+worldmodel to ruvnet/worldgraph submodule
- published as github.com/ruvnet/worldgraph (3-crate workspace, history via git-filter-repo)
- replace the 3 in-tree crates with one submodule at v2/crates/worldgraph
- parent workspace: drop the 3 members, exclude the submodule (it is its own workspace),
  repoint workspace.dependencies(worldmodel) + engine/sensing-server path-deps into it
- cargo metadata resolves clean (geo/worldgraph/worldmodel consumed from the submodule)

Co-Authored-By: claude-flow <ruv@ruv.net>
2026-06-16 14:14:34 -04:00
ruv c257e67c3d chore(swarm): extract ruview-swarm to ruvnet/ruv-drone submodule
- ruview-swarm published as github.com/ruvnet/ruv-drone (history preserved via subtree split)
- replace the in-tree crate with a submodule at v2/crates/ruview-swarm (branch main)
- standalone repo dropped the unused wifi-densepose-core path-dep; export-control NOTICE added there
- workspace member path unchanged; cargo metadata resolves ruview-swarm from the submodule

Co-Authored-By: claude-flow <ruv@ruv.net>
2026-06-16 14:03:56 -04:00
rUvandruv 261ce80a72 feat(adr-260): RuField MFS spec + vendor/rufield submodule (#1061)
ADR-260 (Accepted — v0.1 reference stack): RuField, the open specification
for camera-free multimodal field sensing — one FieldEvent/FieldTensor/
FusionGraph/PrivacyClass/ProvenanceReceipt model above WiFi CSI/CIR/BFLD,
UWB, BLE Channel Sounding, mmWave radar, ultrasound, subsonic, infrared,
and quantum sensors.

Published standalone as github.com/ruvnet/rufield and vendored here as the
vendor/rufield submodule (the vendor/rvcsi pattern — not a v2/ workspace
member). v0.1 reference stack: 6 crates, 60 tests/0 failed, clippy-clean.
All benchmark metrics SYNTHETIC (simulator ground truth, no hardware).

Co-authored-by: ruv <ruvnet@gmail.com>
2026-06-14 01:17:11 -04:00
rUv 07b6bf8084 chore: extract ruv-neural to ruvnet/ruv-neural, wire as submodule (#1019)
The 12-crate brain-topology analysis ecosystem (v2/crates/ruv-neural) was a
self-contained nested workspace with no inbound deps from the v2 workspace
(verified: zero path references outside its own tree). Published standalone
at github.com/ruvnet/ruv-neural and re-attached here as a submodule at the
same path, so the build layout is unchanged while the project gets its own
repo/CI/release cadence.
2026-06-11 18:12:51 -04:00
ruv f2525d7a0d chore(vendor): add rvcsi as a vendor submodule (github.com/ruvnet/rvcsi)
rvCSI — the edge RF sensing runtime incubated here as `v2/crates/rvcsi-*`
(ADR-095, ADR-096, PR #542) — now has a standalone home at
github.com/ruvnet/rvcsi (9 crates published to crates.io, @ruv/rvcsi on npm,
a Claude Code plugin). This vendors it under `vendor/rvcsi`, alongside
`vendor/ruvector` / `vendor/midstream` / `vendor/sublinear-time-solver`.

Follow-up: migrate the workspace to consume `vendor/rvcsi/crates/rvcsi-*`
and drop the inline `v2/crates/rvcsi-*` copies (kept for now so this change
is a pure addition).

Co-Authored-By: claude-flow <ruv@ruv.net>
2026-05-12 22:52:12 -04:00
ruv c257e9a215 chore: track upstream main branch for vendor submodules
- Add branch = main to each submodule in .gitmodules
- Add GitHub Actions workflow that checks every 6 hours for
  upstream updates and opens a PR automatically

Co-Authored-By: claude-flow <ruv@ruv.net>
2026-03-04 13:30:48 -05:00
ruv c6f061a191 refactor: convert vendor/ directories to git submodules
Replace 9,608 tracked vendor files (~737MB) with git submodule pointers
to their upstream repositories:

- vendor/midstream -> https://github.com/ruvnet/midstream
- vendor/ruvector -> https://github.com/ruvnet/ruvector
- vendor/sublinear-time-solver -> https://github.com/ruvnet/sublinear-time-solver

This dramatically reduces repo size and ensures vendor code stays
in sync with upstream. New clones should use:
  git clone --recurse-submodules
Existing clones should run:
  git submodule update --init --recursive

Co-Authored-By: claude-flow <ruv@ruv.net>
2026-03-04 13:22:25 -05:00