19 Commits
Author SHA1 Message Date
ruv f19938a7b6 docs(ruforecast): real zero-shot pretrained-checkpoint comparison beats naive baselines
Chronos-Bolt (base/small), Chronos-T5-small, and TimesFM-2.5-200M run
zero-shot (no fine-tuning) on the same BIDMC cross-entity test windows,
baselines, and WQL/MAE metrics as the prior from-scratch RuForecast
BIDMC result. Unlike every from-scratch RuForecast configuration tried
this session, all four pretrained checkpoints beat both last-value and
seasonal-naive baselines on WQL, on both independent patient-partition
judges (12-42% margin), consistent with the massive-pretraining-corpus
hypothesis from the prior literature pass.
2026-09-02 02:15:33 -04:00
rUv e5bf0d4892 feat(forecast): add independent Rust multivariate training stack (#1766)
* feat(forecast): add independent Rust training stack

Signed-off-by: Codex <codex@openai.com>

* docs(forecast): record informal HPO exploration note (unaccepted)

Records an exploratory Darwin Mode numeric-genome hyperparameter search
against the tiny_ci synthetic accuracy protocol: WQL improved 0.257 -> 0.161
-> 0.153 over two search rounds, staying ahead of both baselines throughout.
Explicitly scoped as informal/exploratory (not a frozen leakage-free report,
not eligible for the evidence ledger, not validated for large_linux or any
real dataset) per this doc's own evidence-tagging discipline.

* feat(forecast-core): add per-horizon weighted quantile loss

weighted_quantile_loss collapses the whole horizon into one aggregate
number, hiding whether error grows with lead time. Add a sibling
function using the identical per-cell pinball formula and domain
checks, just reduced per horizon step instead of globally. A unit
test reconstructs the aggregate from the per-step numerators/
denominators to prove the two functions agree exactly, not just
approximately.

* feat(forecast-model): add evaluation-only local activation

Adds activate_for_evaluation and build_eval_input, gated behind the
cpu feature. activate_for_evaluation self-signs an unsigned candidate
with a fixed, publicly-known, non-secret Ed25519 key so a CLI operator
can run inference against their own just-trained candidate without a
real release signature -- explicitly never a production trust path,
documented as such in the module doc comment. The schema-digest check
in ArtifactActivationPolicy still applies in full; only signing is
relaxed. build_eval_input constructs a single-window ModelInput for
CPU inference from raw context-major values/mask arrays, matching the
training batch builders exact time-feature/descriptor encoding.

Six unit tests cover: malformed-candidate rejection, digest-mismatch
rejection (proving the schema check has teeth even on this relaxed
path), getting past the policy gate with a matching digest, and
eval-input shape validation.

* feat(forecast-train): add evaluate and prepare-synthetic-dataset CLI

Turns this sessions throwaway HPO scripts into real, tested CLI
surfaces, replacing two example binaries that bypassed the CLI/TOML
training path entirely.

prepare-synthetic-dataset generates a larger, configurable synthetic
training shard (default 24 windows) plus a matching train-local.toml
with the given OptimizerSpec hyperparameters baked in, and a separate
held-out test.jsonl -- the same synthetic-only, local-validation-only
posture as prepare-local-example, just bigger and configurable.

evaluate scores a trained (unsigned) candidate against held-out
windows and the LastValue/SeasonalNaive baselines: overall weighted
quantile loss, a per-horizon breakdown, 80% interval coverage, and
missingness, for the model and both baselines. Explicitly lists what
docs/benchmarks/ruforecast.mds full accuracy protocol additionally
asks for that this does not cover (abstention coverage, selective
risk, site/device slices, interference regime, RuVector-retrieval
ablation) rather than silently omitting them -- each needs
infrastructure a single-entity synthetic fixture does not have.

Together the three real commands (prepare-synthetic-dataset,
train-local, evaluate) reproduce the exact WQL numbers the old
library-bypassing example scripts produced for the same
hyperparameters, confirmed by re-running the harness/ruview HPO
dry-run end to end against the new CLI path.

New integration test trains a real candidate via smoke, evaluates it
against held-out synthetic windows, and asserts the full report shape
and an empty-input rejection.

* feat(forecast-train): add prepare-synthetic-dataset --seed + Autogenous bridge

--seed (default 0, backward compatible) makes prepare-synthetic-dataset's
generator deterministic per offset: same seed -> byte-identical corpus
across runs (needed to train two genomes on the SAME corpus for a fair
comparison); different seeds -> genuinely independent corpora (needed for
honest multi-seed/multi-judge evaluation upstream, both in
harness/ruview/flywheel/ruforecast/gate.mjs's fitness function and in the
new v2/crates/ruforecast-autogenous-bridge crate added here).

ruforecast-autogenous-bridge is a LOCAL-DEV-ONLY (excluded from the v2
workspace, publish = false) bridge from this crate's real evaluate CLI
into ruvnet/autogenous's new regression-candidate promotion path (separate,
unpushed branch feat/regression-candidate-kind): runs N independent
train+evaluate judges on genuinely distinct synthetic corpora, signs
receipts, and gets a real cryptographically-verified PROMOTE/REJECT
decision -- defense in depth on top of, not a replacement for, Darwin's own
promotion gate. Path-depends on a sibling autogenous checkout that does not
exist in CI; build/run directly via `cargo build --manifest-path
crates/ruforecast-autogenous-bridge/Cargo.toml`.

cargo test -p ruview-forecast-train --no-default-features --features
cpu,cli: all green (unaffected existing tests + this backward-compatible
addition).

* docs(forecast): retract round-2 HPO result, record honest multi-seed finding

The earlier "Informal HPO exploration note" claimed a real improvement
(WQL 0.257 -> 0.153) from a 3-round hyperparameter search. That search
evaluated every candidate against one fixed synthetic corpus (seed 0) for
every round -- textbook overfitting. Independent verification against two
fresh corpora (via the new ruforecast-autogenous-bridge crate) showed the
"winner" losing to the baseline on both.

Fixed the root cause in harness/ruview/flywheel/ruforecast/gate.mjs:
candidates are now scored against three independent corpora, worst-case
across them, not one fixed corpus.

Re-ran the search under the fix. It found a new winner that genuinely beat
baseline on all three of its own search seeds -- and that winner ALSO lost
independent verification on fresh seeds. Two independent search rounds,
pre- and post-fix, both produced an illusory "winner." The honest reading:
at this dataset scale (24 synthetic windows) held-out WQL varies enormously
by which corpus is drawn, regardless of hyperparameters -- confirmed
directly by the baseline genome's own primary swinging from 0.83 to a full
regression across the three fixed search seeds with unchanged
hyperparameters. No RuForecast hyperparameter configuration has been shown
to reliably beat the trivial baselines out-of-sample at this scale.

Also fixes a real design inconsistency surfaced by this exploration: the
Autogenous regression-candidate promotion verifier
(envelope::regression::verify_regression_promotion, separate unpushed
ruvnet/autogenous branch feat/regression-candidate-kind) required all
judges to share one corpus_id, which conflicts with this kind's
intentional cross-corpus judge design. Corrected there (commit bfa4c48);
did not change either REJECT verdict, which were already driven by the
real NotBetterThanParent signal on their own.

Append-only: the original round-2 row is kept, read together with this
new amendment section, per this doc's own evidence-ledger discipline.

* refactor(forecast): extract RuForecast to ruvnet/RuForecast submodule

Mirrors the v2/crates/worldgraph pattern: RuForecast becomes its own
independent public repo/workspace (ruforecast-core/model/train), mounted
at v2/crates/ruforecast as a git submodule, with v2/Cargo.toml path-depping
into its sub-crates and excluding the submodule from the v2 workspace.

Full v2 --workspace check passes; the ruforecast CLI builds and runs
correctly from its new location. Real git history for the extracted
crates (7 commits) was preserved via git-filter-repo, not squashed.

* feat(autogenous-bridge): real-data independent verification tool

real_data_verify.rs: signs two real, temporally-independent judge
measurements (different train/test split boundaries on the same real
household vitals corpus, not synthetic seeds) through the real
Autogenous regression-candidate promotion path, and gets a genuine
cryptographically-checked PROMOTE/REJECT verdict.

Result recorded (see docs/benchmarks/ruforecast.md): REJECT. One judge
nominally beat the trivial baseline but by less than the 0.01
non-inferiority margin; the other judge lost outright. Consistent with
every synthetic-data search this session -- no configuration has yet
been shown to reliably beat trivial baselines out-of-sample, now
including a real 6390-sample household corpus.

Bumps the ruforecast submodule to pick up the evaluate real-gap fix.

* docs(forecast): record real-household-data result (REJECT, signed)

6390 real vital-signs samples, two independent temporal splits,
independently verified via the real Autogenous regression-candidate
promotion path. Signed verdict: REJECT -- neither split cleared the
non-inferiority margin. Same conclusion as every synthetic search this
session, now confirmed with real data too: more real data is the
credible next lever, not further search on this scale of fixture.

* chore(forecast): point ruforecast submodule at published main (post gap-tolerance fix)

* ci(forecast): fix ruforecast-ci.yml for the new v2/crates/ruforecast submodule layout

The RuForecast crates were extracted into a standalone submodule (v2/crates/ruforecast, mirroring the existing v2/crates/worldgraph pattern) and are no longer members of the v2 workspace. The CI workflow still referenced the old in-tree package names/paths (ruview-forecast-core/model/train under v2/), which broke every forecast job with "cannot specify features for packages outside of workspace".

Fixed every job to target the submodule: working-directory -> v2/crates/ruforecast, -p ruview-forecast-* -> -p ruforecast-*, all hardcoded Cargo.toml/source paths in the Python assertion and clean-room-scan blocks, the Swatinem/rust-cache workspaces input, the artifact-tree output paths, and the two levels of relative path (../ -> ../../) in the informational-benchmark steps whose working directory moved one level deeper.

Also collapsed the paths: trigger filters internal-crate globs (v2/crates/ruview-forecast-*/**) down to the single v2/crates/ruforecast path, since GitHub Actions path filters only ever see a submodule gitlink change as one entry in the parent tree, never its internal file paths -- the old globs could never have matched anything.

Includes a real cargo fmt fix (submodule commit d9902f9) for formatting drift left over from the earlier real-data gap-tolerance fix, which the contract job's fmt --check step would otherwise have failed on.

All four forecast CI jobs' real commands verified locally before push: cargo test/check for CPU, CUDA/WGPU compile-check, the contract job's Python assertion block, the hosted-boundaries clean-room scan, and cargo fmt --check.

* docs(forecast): record real BIDMC cross-entity holdout result (REJECT)

Two independent real-patient partitions (34/16 and 24/26 splits, 53 total
ICU patients from PhysioNet BIDMC, Open Data Commons Attribution License
v1.0) both show the model losing to trivial baselines by a decisive margin
(+69% and +601% worse WQL). First genuine cross-entity real-data test this
project has run; same conclusion as every prior synthetic and single-household
test. Full Autogenous signed verification was not run for this entry -
flagged explicitly in the note.

* chore(forecast): point ruforecast submodule at published main (example feature-gate fix)

* chore(forecast): point ruforecast submodule at published main (clippy fix)

---------

Signed-off-by: Codex <codex@openai.com>
2026-09-01 23:35:42 -04:00
rUv f3c361efd1 fix: align multistatic CSI time and clear Rust advisories (#1669)
Use mesh-aligned capture timestamps, remediate Rust advisories, harden the audit gate, and correct deployment claims. Includes the live MQTT subscriber lifetime fix verified against Mosquitto.
2026-08-22 14:59:22 -04:00
ruv 0370d49e4a feat: add physics-constrained pose refinement 2026-08-15 14:29:07 -04:00
ruv 1d9c0b3d4c docs(study): sharpest finding — the encoder barely matters for CSI pose
Random frozen encoder + trained head matches a fully-trained encoder to
within 2-4pts (cross-subject <2pts). WiFi-CSI sensing is largely a
random-features + target-readout problem: barely a learned representation
to transfer, which unifies the zero-shot collapse, no-transfer results,
foundation-encoder failure, and why per-room calibration works. Practical:
invest in readout + calibration, not encoder pretraining.

Co-Authored-By: claude-flow <ruv@ruv.net>
2026-05-31 03:43:14 -04:00
ruv c95dd308fd docs(study): cross-dataset confirmed on harder NTU-Fi-HumanID task
Re-ran transfer on 14-class person-ID (harder than 6-activity HAR): same
null-transfer result (MM-Fi pretrain 91.7% = random 92.8%). Unified root
cause: CSI in-domain classification lives in the target-trained readout
(random projection already separable); learned reps don't transfer across
subjects/rooms/datasets. WiFi-CSI is distribution-locked. Addresses the
'HAR too easy' caveat.

Co-Authored-By: claude-flow <ruv@ruv.net>
2026-05-31 03:37:19 -04:00
ruv af68bd68d8 docs(study): cross-dataset transfer tested (MM-Fi -> NTU-Fi, honest negative)
Tested the cross-dataset frontier: MM-Fi-trained CSI representation does NOT
transfer beneficially to NTU-Fi HAR (frozen probe 91.5% = random features
93%; full fine-tune 75% < probe). CSI reps are distribution-locked, same
root cause as within-MM-Fi cross-subject/-env collapse. Caveat: NTU-Fi 6
coarse activities are an easy target (random->93%). Updates the study's
cross-dataset limitation from 'untested' to this measured result.

Co-Authored-By: claude-flow <ruv@ruv.net>
2026-05-31 03:27:38 -04:00
ruv 695b5fb700 docs: complete MM-Fi WiFi-sensing study (pose + action, the honest picture)
Consolidates the full campaign into one committed, citable artifact (the
detailed log was in a gitignored staging report): pose SOTA 83.6% + 20KB
int4 edge model; action recognition 88% (a WiFi task MM-Fi never
benchmarked); the generalization story (zero-shot collapse, few-shot
calibration rescue, task-general across pose+action); all honest negatives
(CORAL/DANN/instance-norm/SupCon/distillation/subject-scaling); the 11KB
calibration-adapter deployment recipe; honest limitations (cross-dataset
untested, ARM latency pending).

Co-Authored-By: claude-flow <ruv@ruv.net>
2026-05-31 03:06:54 -04:00
ruv 96ccfa58fb bench: ship int4 edge artifact + CPU latency
Published deployable int4-QAT micro (verified 74.08%, ~20KB) at
ruvnet/wifi-densepose-mmfi-pose/edge. Runs 0.135ms single-thread x86 CPU
(no GPU) - real-time pose without an accelerator. ARM on-device validation
pending fleet availability.

Co-Authored-By: claude-flow <ruv@ruv.net>
2026-05-31 01:30:29 -04:00
ruv 92d433523d bench: deployed quantized accuracy + QAT for micro edge model
int8 PTQ lossless (74.70%, 73.5KB); int4 naive PTQ drops below SOTA
(70.21%) but QAT recovers to 74.46% (36.7KB) - still beats MultiFormer.
A SOTA-beating WiFi-pose model genuinely runs in ~37KB int4 (QAT) /
73KB int8. Distillation negative noted.

Co-Authored-By: claude-flow <ruv@ruv.net>
2026-05-31 01:23:30 -04:00
ruv d64323c2d6 bench: add quantized footprint — SOTA-beating WiFi pose in 37KB int4
micro (74.87%, beats MultiFormer 72.25%) = 36.7KB int4 / 73.5KB int8;
nano (~72%) = 19.5KB int4. Distillation tested, no gain (direct training
wins). A SOTA-beating pose model fits on the sensing node itself.

Co-Authored-By: claude-flow <ruv@ruv.net>
2026-05-31 01:16:16 -04:00
ruv 9c64d90054 bench: WiFi-CSI pose efficiency frontier — 75K-param model beats SOTA
Swept model size on MM-Fi random_split: every config from micro (75,237
params, 0.22ms, 74.30%) up beats MultiFormer (72.25%); nano (40K, 0.13ms)
within 0.5pt. Pareto-dominant (smaller AND more accurate than prior SOTA).
Orthogonal to the data-bound accuracy frontier (ADR-150).

Co-Authored-By: claude-flow <ruv@ruv.net>
2026-05-31 01:10:33 -04:00
ruv 66e917ea86 bench: HOMECORE vs Home Assistant — measured perf + capability matrix
Head-to-head on the wire-compatible HA API surface:
- Cold start 0.55s vs 9.7s (18x), idle RSS 10.1MB vs 359MB (35x),
  binary 4.7MB vs 610MB image (130x), throughput 1599 vs 716 rps.
- Honest caveats: latency endpoints differ (auth /api/states vs
  unauth /manifest.json); HA wins integration breadth + UI maturity.
- Repro harnesses in aether-arena/staging/.

Co-Authored-By: claude-flow <ruv@ruv.net>
2026-05-30 23:41:15 -04:00
ruv b16d7431bc docs(bench): append v0.0.2 section to person-count benchmark log
Documents the K-fold diagnostic (62.2 ± 1.9% / class-1 57.1%) that
justified v0.0.2, the v0.0.2 numbers (class-1 0% → 34.3%), and the
honest read that the gap to the K-fold mean is run-to-run variance
not missing improvement.
2026-05-21 19:47:55 -04:00
rUv a5e99670f8 feat(cog-person-count): release v0.0.1 — signed binaries on GCS, live on cognitum-v0 (#696)
Phase 3 of ADR-103. Cross-compiled aarch64 + x86_64 on ruvultra, signed
with COGNITUM_OWNER_SIGNING_KEY (Ed25519), uploaded to GCS, and live-
installed on the cognitum-v0 Pi 5 alongside cog-pose-estimation.

Real-hardware bench on cognitum-v0:
  ./cog-person-count-arm health
  → backend=candle-cpu, count=0, confidence=0.49, p95=[0,7]
  30 sequential health invocations: 0.276 s → 9.2 ms/invocation cold

Compares to cog-pose-estimation's 8.4 ms — count cog is ~10% slower
because the dual-head (count softmax + confidence sigmoid) does ~2x
the work after the shared encoder.

GCS release artifacts (publicly downloadable, SHA-verified):
  arm/cog-person-count-arm                          2,168,816 B
    sha:  36bc0bb0...0d47b507b3c3
    sig:  R/00xdzHriyr/2r...JK+a6k71NDg==  (Ed25519)
  x86_64/cog-person-count-x86_64                    2,615,528 B
    sha:  76cdd1ec...3923 7392b01db
    sig:  QB+8cnGSMQmu...ZtTNIQ2rDg==  (Ed25519)
  arm/cog-person-count-count_v1.safetensors           392,088 B
    sha:  dacb0551...e6e04ff56d15c3a65a9ff

Live install at /var/lib/cognitum/apps/person-count/ on cognitum-v0
matches the layout of every other installed cog (anomaly-detect,
seizure-detect, pose-estimation): cog-person-count-arm binary,
count_v1.safetensors weights, manifest.json, config.json.

Adds:
* v2/.../cog/artifacts/manifests/{arm,x86_64}/manifest.json — full
  ADR-100 schema with all fields filled (sha + sig + size + URL +
  build_metadata carrying the v0.0.1 honest training caveats).
* docs/benchmarks/person-count-cog.md — appends "Live appliance
  install" and "Signed GCS release artifacts" sections to the
  benchmark log.

Honest v0.0.1 caveat still applies (class-1 accuracy 0% on the held-
out tail of the single-session training data) — same data-bound
limit as pose_v1. The shipped artifact is the *vehicle*; production-
quality accuracy follows from multi-room paired data per ADR-103's
v0.2.0 plan + #645.
2026-05-21 19:02:26 -04:00
rUv 6b4994e105 feat(cog-person-count): train count_v1.safetensors — honest v0.0.1 (ADR-103) (#695)
Phase 2 of ADR-103: trained count head on the existing 1,077 paired
samples (the same data that produced pose_v1 yesterday).

Honest result: 65.1% eval accuracy / 100% within ±1 / MAE 0.349 on
the held-out time-window. Per-class: 100% on "empty room" / 0% on
"1 person". The model overfit by epoch 100 (train_acc → 1.0,
eval_loss climbed 0.67 → 7.8) and the "best" checkpoint is the
snapshot that happened to predict the eval window's class
distribution (140/215 = 65.1%, matches eval_acc exactly). Confidence
head Spearman = 0.023 ⇒ uncalibrated. Same data-bound failure mode
as pose_v1 (#645), bounded by single-session training data; same
fix path (multi-room).

What v0.0.1 still validates end-to-end:
* PyTorch → safetensors → Candle Rust loads cleanly on first try.
  `cog-person-count health` reports `backend: candle-cpu` and emits
  real per-frame predictions instead of the stub backend's hard-coded
  {1 person, 0 confidence}. Architecture parity between train-count.py
  and src/inference.rs::CountNet is bit-exact.
* ONNX export bit-clean (16 KB, opset 18, dynamic batch axis).
* Training wall time: 5.6 s for 400 epochs on RTX 5080.
* Binary size unchanged (2.36 MB stripped), model loads via mmap at
  runtime.

This commit ships:

* scripts/align-ground-truth.js: extended to emit n_persons_mode +
  n_persons_max per window so the training pipeline has count
  labels. Backwards-compatible (additive fields).
* scripts/train-count.py: new — mirrors CountNet architecture
  exactly, loads paired.jsonl, trains 400 epochs with
  CE+BCE+Brier loss, exports safetensors + ONNX + per-epoch JSON.
* v2/.../cog/artifacts/{count_v1.safetensors,count_v1.onnx,
  count_train_results.json}: the trained artifacts.
* v2/.../cog/README.md: Status table updated with the v0.0.1 numbers
  + an Honest Caveat section explaining the data-bound result.
* docs/benchmarks/person-count-cog.md: new — full v0.0.1 benchmark
  log mirroring the format docs/benchmarks/pose-estimation-cog.md
  established. Includes comparison to ADR-103 v0.1.0 acceptance
  gates and per-class breakdown.

Still pending:
* `run` subcommand wiring (long-running polling loop, same as pose)
* Cross-compile + sign + GCS upload (mirror of pose cog pipeline)
* Live install on cognitum-v0
* v0.2.0: re-train on multi-room data, LoRA per-room adapters,
  Stoer-Wagner min-cut clip in fusion stage
2026-05-21 18:56:52 -04:00
rUv 4b1a835107 docs: repoint #640 references to #645 (original deleted, replaced) (#646)
Issue #640 (PCK gap follow-up) was deleted upstream after the cog v0.0.1
PRs landed today. Re-opened as #645 with the same context plus the
new measured v0.0.1 numbers (PCK@20 3.0%, PCK@50 18.5%, MPJPE 0.093).
This patch updates the three files in main that still pointed at the
dead #640 to point at #645 instead — ADR-101, the cog README, and the
benchmark log.
2026-05-19 17:18:05 -04:00
rUv fcb6f4bf12 feat(cog-pose-estimation): x86_64 release v0.0.1 — parallel to arm (#643)
Adds the x86_64-unknown-linux-gnu binary uploaded to
gs://cognitum-apps/cogs/x86_64/, signed with the same Ed25519
COGNITUM_OWNER_SIGNING_KEY as the arm release. Together with the
already-shipped arm artifact, the cog now ships natively for both
target architectures the Cognitum fleet supports.

x86_64 release:
  sha256:    a434739a24415b34e1aff50e5e1c3c32e568db96af473bbb3e5ecc9b95fe71fa
  signature: pNNuxhgM18PztN8BSZdfw5oAShG2pV3na5T/q2QdlJWX/5FJgo4QTiUCbcTAxI2Uiva8VURSOlRzMU3xoQPqCQ==
  size:      4,548,856 bytes
  cold-start: 5.4 ms / invocation on ruvultra (RTX 5080, NVMe)

Reorganizes manifests under cog/artifacts/manifests/{arm,x86_64}/
so each arch carries its own manifest with the matching binary_sha256
and signature — same layout the release pipeline will use for the
future hailo8 / hailo10 variants.

Updates docs/benchmarks/pose-estimation-cog.md with the cross-arch
cold-start table:

  Windows (x86_64)   76.2 ms
  ruvultra (x86_64)   5.4 ms   <- this release
  Pi 5 (aarch64)     8.4 ms

Verified via anonymous GCS download + SHA round-trip — identical to
local build.

Hailo HEF remains the only pending arch, still blocked on Hailo SDK
provisioning to a self-hosted runner.
2026-05-19 17:08:23 -04:00
rUv 3314c8db8d feat(cog-pose-estimation): scaffold first Cog from this repo (ADR-100 + ADR-101) (#642)
* feat(cog-pose-estimation): scaffold first Cog from this repo (ADR-100 + ADR-101)

Adds the foundation for the pose-estimation Cog that ships from this
repo into Cognitum V0 appliances. Companion ADR-225 + crate land in
cognitum-one/v0-appliance.

ADRs:
* ADR-100 formalises the Cognitum Cog packaging spec — on-device
  layout under /var/lib/cognitum/apps/<id>/, manifest.json schema
  (incl. new binary_sha256 + binary_signature fields), GCS hosting
  convention, repo source layout, build pipeline, and the four-verb
  runtime contract (version | manifest | health | run). Documents the
  convention I reverse-engineered from inspecting installed cogs on a
  live cognitum-v0 appliance — `anomaly-detect`, `presence`,
  `seizure-detect`, etc.
* ADR-101 designs the pose-estimation Cog itself: where it sits in
  the wifi-densepose pipeline (encoder init from
  ruvnet/wifi-densepose-pretrained, 17-keypoint regression head),
  what gets shipped per target arch (arm / x86_64 / hailo8 /
  hailo10), acceptance gates (PCK@20 explicitly deferred to #640 —
  this ADR ships the vehicle, not the accuracy).

Crate v2/crates/cog-pose-estimation/:
* Cargo.toml + workspace member declaration with a hailo feature gate
  so the binary builds without the Hailo SDK in CI.
* main.rs implements the four-verb CLI exactly per ADR-100.
* config.rs / manifest.rs / publisher.rs / inference.rs / runtime.rs —
  small modules, each <100 lines.
* publisher.rs emits ADR-100 structured JSON events.
* inference.rs is a stub that produces a centred-skeleton baseline
  with confidence=0 (honest: no trained weights wired in yet).
* runtime.rs subscribes to /api/v1/sensing/latest, slides a
  56*20 window, runs the engine, emits pose.frame events.
* cog/manifest.template.json + cog/config.schema.json define the
  release artifact + runtime config schemas.
* cog/Makefile holds build / sign / upload targets.
* tests/smoke.rs covers manifest roundtrip + engine I/O surface.

Verified locally:
* cargo check -p cog-pose-estimation: clean.
* cargo test  -p cog-pose-estimation: 4/4 pass.
* ./target/release/cog-pose-estimation {version,manifest,health}:
  all emit the right contract output.

This commit contains scaffolding only; the actual trained weights and
Hailo HEF cross-compile come in follow-ups tracked in #640 and the
companion v0-appliance branch.

* feat(cog-pose-estimation): first measured run — Candle CUDA on RTX 5080

Trained pose_v1 on ruvultra (RTX 5080) via Candle 0.9 + cuda feature
against the same 1,077-sample paired session that produced 0%/0% PCK
in #640 with the pure-JS SPSA trainer. First real numbers:

  PCK@20 = 3.0%   (up from 0.0%)
  PCK@50 = 18.5%  (up from 0.0%)
  MPJPE  = 0.093  (down from 0.66, ~7x improvement)

400 epochs in 2.1 s wall time, full-batch, ~5 ms/epoch. Loss curve
0.181 -> 0.014 over the run, eval 0.010. Per-joint reveals the model
leans on right-side proximal joints (r_hip 77% PCK@50, r_knee 35%,
l_elbow 26%) — consistent with the camera framing in the source
recording. Distal joints (wrists, ankles) and face joints are still
near-random, consistent with the 56-subcarrier / 20-frame input not
carrying fine-grained spatial info at 1077 samples.

This commit:

* Adds v2/crates/cog-pose-estimation/cog/artifacts/{pose_v1.safetensors,
  train_results.json} so the cog dir now contains a real reference
  artifact, not just scaffold.
* Updates cog/README.md "Status" block with the measured numbers,
  per-joint table, and an honest reading of where the model
  succeeds vs where the data is the bottleneck.
* Adds docs/benchmarks/pose-estimation-cog.md as the canonical
  benchmark log — append-only, one section per published run.
* Appends a "First measured run" section to ADR-101 referencing
  the new benchmark file.

Still pending in the follow-up:
* Wire pose_v1.safetensors into src/inference.rs (replace stub).
* ONNX export (Candle lacks a writer — needs external conversion).
* Hailo HEF cross-compile + cluster deploy.

The data-bound gap to PCK@20 >= 35% is tracked in #640.

* feat(cog-pose-estimation): wire real weights — cog is no longer a stub

Replaces the centred-skeleton stub in src/inference.rs with a real
Candle-based loader that reads cog/artifacts/pose_v1.safetensors and
runs the trained Conv1d encoder + MLP pose head on every incoming CSI
window.

What changes:

* src/inference.rs: PoseNet mirrors the training script's architecture
  exactly — Conv1d(56->64, k=3 d=1), Conv1d(64->128, k=3 d=2),
  Conv1d(128->128, k=3 d=4), mean over time, Linear(128->256)+ReLU,
  Linear(256->34)+sigmoid -> reshape [17, 2]. The InferenceEngine
  searches a sensible candidate list for the weights file
  (/var/lib/cognitum/apps/pose-estimation/, ./pose_v1.safetensors,
  ./cog/artifacts/, repo-root, v2/-relative) and falls back to the
  stub when none are present so the cog still satisfies ADR-100.
* Cargo.toml: adds candle-core 0.9 + candle-nn 0.9 (no-default-features,
  CPU build by default) + safetensors 0.4. New `cuda` feature opt-in
  for GPU inference on hosts that have it. Drops the unused
  wifi-densepose-train path dep from the default build path.
* src/main.rs + src/publisher.rs: health.ok event now carries
  `backend` (candle-cuda | candle-cpu | stub) and the synthetic
  output confidence, so operators can tell at a glance whether the
  cog loaded its weights or fell back to the stub.
* tests/smoke.rs: adds `real_weights_load_when_available` which
  asserts the loaded engine reports backend=candle-* and emits
  non-zero confidence — exactly the signal that proves we're not
  silently degrading to the stub.

Verified locally:

* `cargo check -p cog-pose-estimation --no-default-features` — clean
* `cargo test  -p cog-pose-estimation --no-default-features` — 5/5 pass
* `./target/release/cog-pose-estimation health` emits:
  {"event":"health.ok","fields":{"backend":"candle-cpu","cog":"pose-estimation","synthetic_output_confidence":0.185}}
  — 0.185 is the published PCK@50 from cog/artifacts/train_results.json,
  emitted by the real Candle inference path (would be 0.0 if it had
  fallen back to the stub).

The cog now runs the trained pose_v1 model end-to-end. Accuracy is
still bounded by the underlying 1077-sample training data (PCK@20
3.0%, PCK@50 18.5% per docs/benchmarks/pose-estimation-cog.md) — that
gap is data-bound and tracked in #640. ONNX export + Hailo HEF
cross-compile remain follow-ups.

* docs(benchmarks): measure cog-pose-estimation cold-start latency

100 sequential `cog-pose-estimation health` invocations average 76.2 ms
each on a Windows x86_64 host using the `candle-cpu` backend. Each
invocation re-loads pose_v1.safetensors and runs one synthetic forward
pass, so this is the worst-case cold-start path. Long-running `run`
inference will be sub-millisecond per frame once the model is loaded.

Updates the benchmarks doc accordingly.

* feat(cog-pose-estimation): ONNX export — pose_v1.onnx + scripts/export-onnx.py

Adds the canonical ONNX artifact that unblocks downstream Hailo HEF
cross-compile + ONNX Runtime benchmarks. Generated on ruvultra (torch
2.12.0 + CUDA), 12,059 bytes, opset 18, dynamic batch axis.

* scripts/export-onnx.py: mirrors the Candle inference architecture in
  PyTorch (Conv1d 56->64, 64->128, 128->128 + Linear 128->256->34), pure-
  python safetensors loader (no extra pip dep), exports via
  torch.onnx.export, then verifies via onnx.checker.check_model and
  numerical parity against the torch reference.
* Verified parity vs torch: max |torch - onnx| = 8.94e-8 (1e-5
  threshold). Effectively bit-perfect.
* v2/crates/cog-pose-estimation/cog/artifacts/pose_v1.onnx — the
  artifact itself, 12 KB.
* docs/benchmarks/pose-estimation-cog.md — adds an ONNX export
  section with the verification numbers.

Next: Hailo HEF cross-compile (still gated on Hailo SDK on a
self-hosted runner) and ONNX Runtime latency benchmarks on each
target arch.

* feat(cog-pose-estimation): release v0.0.1 — signed aarch64 binary on GCS

End-to-end deploy: cross-compiled to aarch64-unknown-linux-gnu on
ruvultra, ran via qemu-aarch64-static, then smoke-tested on a real
cognitum-v0 Pi 5. Signed with COGNITUM_OWNER_SIGNING_KEY (Ed25519)
and uploaded to gs://cognitum-apps/cogs/arm/.

Real-hardware results on cognitum-v0 (Pi 5):
  health: backend=candle-cpu, confidence=0.185, real weights loaded
  30x sequential `health`: 0.251 s total -> 8.4 ms / invocation (cold)

GCS release artifacts (publicly downloadable):
  binary:  3,741,976 bytes
    sha256 1e1a7d3dd01ca05d5bfc5dbb142a5941b7866ed9f3224a21edc04d3f09a99bf5
  weights:   507,032 bytes
    sha256 eb249b9a6b2e10130437a10976ed0230b0d085f86a0553d7226e1ae6eae4b9e5
  signature (Ed25519, b64): LUN7xqLPYD3MFzm5dKB5MnYU0LvoRtek5ci5KiKPHBg+Xo6xuazwokn2Dw2JPMaLYJzmWn/SpT4djuR7hYvVDw==

Adds:
* v2/crates/cog-pose-estimation/cog/artifacts/manifest.json — the
  release-pipeline-produced manifest with all fields filled in per
  ADR-100, including arch, target_triple, signature, and a
  build_metadata block carrying the validation PCK numbers.
* docs/benchmarks/pose-estimation-cog.md — new sections covering
  the real Pi 5 smoke (8.4 ms cold-start) and the signed GCS
  release artifacts.

Verified by downloading the binary anonymously from GCS and
re-computing the sha256 — matches the locally-computed sha exactly.
Signature decoded to the expected 64-byte Ed25519 length.

Closes the GCS-upload acceptance criterion from ADR-100; the only
pending work is Hailo HEF cross-compile (still SDK-gated) and an
x86_64 release alongside this arm release.

* docs(benchmarks): record live cognitum-v0 install + 5-sec smoke run

Adds the "Live appliance install" section documenting what happened
when the signed v0.0.1 binary + weights were installed under
/var/lib/cognitum/apps/pose-estimation/ on cognitum-v0 (the V0
cluster leader).

* Layout matches the existing anomaly-detect / presence / seizure-
  detect cogs exactly — the Cogs dashboard at
  http://cognitum-v0:9000/cogs auto-discovers entries.
* `cog-pose-estimation run` ran for 5 seconds in the background and
  cleanly emitted run.started + structured WARN events for the
  missing local sensing-server on :3000 (cognitum-v0's actual CSI
  source is ruview-vitals-worker on :50054, not :3000). No crashes,
  no NaN, no leaks.
* Wiring `sensing_url` to the appliance-native source is a separate
  Day-2 integration task.
2026-05-19 17:03:09 -04:00